This 8,000-pound gorilla is becoming so large even financial geniuses can’t figure it out

March 13, 2017 09:36 AM

This is the week we’ve all been waiting for. You may not have realized it but it’s true. On Marcn 1 we have a trifecta of events. Front and center is Fed Chair Janet Yellen who will raise rates because the change of season Fed meetings are always accompanied by the big press conference. Some think it will be 50 basis points. That’s very unlikely. Here’s why. On the same day is the Dutch elections, which many believe will push Europe closer to the dissolution of the European Union, an event the globalists won’t appreciate.

Finally, March 15 is the deadline for the government to do something about that debt ceiling. They don’t have to act on Wednesday, but as Chris Berman used to say, the United States of America will be on the clock. In 50 days the government will run out of money according to Stockman, Reagans OMB Director. Right now I’m reading a piece from The and it says, “By CBO’s estimate, the Treasury would most likely to able to continue borrowing and have sufficient cash to make its usual payments until sometime in the fall of this year without an increase in the debt limit, though an earlier or later date is possible.”

Earlier or later, that’s what concerns me. The 8,000-pound gorilla is becoming so large even financial geniuses can’t figure it out.

You’ll recall back in 2011 all of this was a very big deal as the debt ceiling was a major feature of the last important correction the market experienced. Nobody really believed sane politicians would actually default on the debt when they didn’t have to. Now we know they are not sane but also not crazy enough to actually not raise the debt ceiling.

We’ve been pulling back for a week. What stopped it from going down more? Most of these charts filled their gaps from last week and that was it. As far as Europe is concerned, the chart I’m watching most now is the DAX, which has perfect calculations for a top. That one started to trap out the bulls, who bought near the high but let them off the hook before a retest of the top failed. Right now, bulls haven’t been shut out but the close gives bears a slight edge. Monday’s early trading gives a slight edge to bears.

There are three reasons why we need to be concerned about these markets heading into this pivotal week. They are transports, oil and banking stocks. The people who bought the big Wednesday of a week ago quickly found themselves under water and they paid the price as you can see. Then it got retested and bulls ran for the hills there was nothing left to stop the bears. This is an incredibly reliable pattern. Oil stocks got hit the same way. For oil itself, it had its only little bull trap and I figured it would go down to near term support. But it jumped the ski slope as well. The banks are also very vulnerable right here.

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About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.