Happy New Year – 2012
Here is my 2011 review by the numbers.
Well 2012 is here and all of the “self-proclaimed experts” are coming out with all of their predictions. I have been watching this for decades. In case you have not learned yet, there is nobody out there who can predict the markets. They make their money selling you their “predictions.” If I had a true crystal ball that worked, I certainly would not sell it to anybody. Trading success comes from learning to ride momentum. So in this week’s Market Pulse I put together a look back at 2011 by the numbers. You will see a clear picture of when markets hit highs and lows, the week this happened, and you can see where “big money was posturing” for 2011 in the COT Legacy report for financials and the COT Disaggregated report for commodities. There is an old saying that you should know where you have been so you know where you are going. I think you will find this to be useful all year long. Let me know what you think.
Download the spreadsheet here 
.
COT Data
|
Commodity |
12-mo low |
12-mo hi |
30-Dec |
23-Dec |
|
Cattle (feed) |
-1,290 |
5,543 |
1,400 |
1,654 |
|
Cattle (live) |
-41,437 |
10,437 |
-11,500 |
-12,648 |
|
Hogs |
-46,574 |
21,270 |
-14,554 |
-22,204 |
|
Corn |
-413,915 |
-36,487 |
-55,493 |
-36,487 |
|
Oats |
-7,738 |
83 |
-559 |
83 |
|
Soybeans |
-203,260 |
28,178 |
-574 |
6,204 |
|
Soybean meal |
-84,656 |
32,081 |
17,173 |
26,360 |
|
Soybean oil |
-117,444 |
29,745 |
10,517 |
23,112 |
|
Wheat |
-32,577 |
82,335 |
66,641 |
76,261 |
|
Orange juice |
-22,341 |
-9,769 |
-13,149 |
-13,018 |
|
Coffee |
-45,699 |
1,153 |
185 |
1,153 |
|
Cocoa |
-41,808 |
10,252 |
9,463 |
10,252 |
|
Sugar |
-221,694 |
-25,626 |
-25,626 |
-26,087 |
|
Cotton |
-46,785 |
-2,152 |
-2,635 |
-2,152 |
|
British pound |
-66,435 |
88,682 |
41,338 |
39,464 |
|
Canada dollar |
-115,190 |
25,942 |
19,201 |
-3,232 |
|
Euro FX |
-124,855 |
156,627 |
156,627 |
143,119 |
|
Japanese yen |
-64,864 |
76,983 |
-12,183 |
-17,330 |
|
Swiss franc |
-42,387 |
24,245 |
22,117 |
12,627 |
|
US dollar index |
-53,158 |
14,003 |
-47,239 |
-48,691 |
|
Mexican Peso |
-140,414 |
39,901 |
29,982 |
22,546 |
|
Australian dollar |
-110,025 |
479 |
-35,034 |
-26,872 |
|
S&P 500 |
-77,473 |
73,398 |
-13,823 |
-11,239 |
|
T-note -10 yr |
-20,966 |
229,611 |
27,598 |
33,685 |
|
T-bond -30 yr |
-20,389 |
88,803 |
17,155 |
15,703 |
|
Eurodollar |
-408,407 |
1,126,194 |
781,355 |
780,775 |
|
Crude oil |
-319,669 |
-114,385 |
-163,369 |
-156,128 |
|
Heating oil |
-66,097 |
-4,204 |
-21,995 |
-15,258 |
|
RBOB Gasoline |
-85,987 |
-38,417 |
-61,791 |
-51,555 |
|
Natural gas |
108,160 |
228,910 |
139,385 |
136,007 |
|
Copper |
-36,201 |
14,419 |
10,383 |
11,372 |
|
Gold |
-287,634 |
-159,153 |
-163,392 |
-164,554 |
|
Platinum |
-35,249 |
-18,670 |
-21,466 |
-21,907 |
|
Silver |
-57,793 |
-14,132 |
-14,132 |
-14,825 |
Commercial Net Tracker instructions: This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A) If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B) If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C) If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D) If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
If you need help understanding how to understand how to use the COT report to your benefit, please email me at Gary@crbtrader.com and put COT report in the subject line. Please include your name and telephone number in the email.