March soybean futures broke lower yesterday on what was largely technical selling. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 1,199,000 metric tons, this was at the top end of expectations.
Last week’s signing of Phase-1 was a classic buy the rumor, sell the news response. The substance in the trade deal remains suspect in our eyes. China has stated several times that imports will be based on market conditions, ie: supply/demand and price (same as before).
Soybean futures continued to roll over on a continuation of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction. On top of the dwindling good news, there was some bearish news coming from South America,
In yesterday’s report we wrote: “It will be nice to get some clarity on the “trade deal”, but I wouldn’t hold your breath for something magical to happen.
China promises significant Soybean purchases after signing Phase One trade deal today. Farmers looking forward to more demand.
Soybean futures were mixed yesterday as much of the optimism around the Phase-1 deal seems to be priced in (see the 75-cent rally in December for reference).
Friday’s USDA report was mostly bearish Soybeans with yield, production, and ending stocks coming in higher than expectations. What helped prop the market up after an initial dip was technical support and optimism around this week signing of the Phase-1 trade deal.
Oliver Sloup breaks down the trading day in grain futures markets.
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices.
Fundamentals: Soybeans took a tumble on Friday as US/Iranian tensions rose, prompting some profit-taking on concerns it could throw a wrench in trade negotiations with China.