Crop Progress Report Shows Improvements

RJO grains and soybeans update

RJO grains and soybeans update

 

Midweek Grain Update

Corn

Since Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report, where corn G/E ratings went up to 72% which was higher than the expected 69% and higher than the top end of the estimate at 71%, we have seen some weakness in corn. This has sent prices about 4-5 cents lower on the week and breaking some important trend line support and closing below the trend line support as well, which is looked at as a bearish technical setup. Assuming weather remains bearish and no surprise demand news, I would expect corn to test their recent contract lows from before the June 30 report around $3.22. Expectations are that wheat production will be near 1.85 billion bushels, a notch below last month’s report at 1.866 billion bushels. Old crop ending stocks are expected to come in near 979 million bushels, near unchanged from last month. New crop ending stocks are expected to come in near 897 million bushels, compared to the 909 we saw in last month’s report. 

Corn futures prices

Source: RJO Futures Pro

Soybeans

Like corn, soybean also improved on the crop progress report up to 72% G/E versus expectations of 69%-70%.  Beans are in a position to see more downside with improving crop on top of less threatening weather. Outside of Minnesota and northern Iowa, most areas are expected to see good rains in the next 6-10 days. It looks to be testing strong trend line support that has proven to hold in the past, so this will be a big test to see if we break below that $8.80 level. Sellers have remained active, but don’t be surprised to see a technical bounce around here.

Soybean futures prices

Source: RJO Futures Pro

If you are interested in discussing the potential opportunities in grains, contact Tony directly at tcholly@rjofutures.com.

About the Author

Tony Cholly is a senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Tony's primary focus is on technical analysis in the grain, metals, and energy markets.