Livestock Futures Commentary
Outside markets were firm yesterday and are holding overnight, this on the back of a $2 trillion stimulus package was expected an announced. The package includes up to $1,200 checks for Americans in a specific income bracket, that amount phases out with a higher income. The package also includes expands unemployment insurance benefits, adding an additional $600/week for four months. Notice that the 4-month time frame is longer than the initial quarantine, signaling it could be longer for “non-essential” businesses.
Live cattle and feeder cattle will be trading with expanded limits again today, which is 4.50 for live cattle and 6.75 for Feeders, the limit for MARCH Feeders remains at 10.00. Choice cutout was down $1 yesterday while select gained .34. Cash trade is expected to jump this week, but we have seen little action thus far with asking prices hovering near 122 and above.
We do believe there is more room to the upside on the front-month contracts, but we think it may not be sustainable for another week. Once freezers are full and economic data starts hitting the wire, it will be tough to feed the bull.
June lean hogs finished the day on solid ground, but fell short of limit up, brining normal limits of 3.00 back into play for today’s trading session. As of right now, it appears we will see a firm trade on the open. There is a gap from 78.55-78.675 that technicians are watching closely, that is from March 11th. If the market ran to this pocket, we would consider selling against it on the first test. As stated, several times over the last week, we believe there are better near-term opportunities (cattle) than lean hogs
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