Wheat futures rallied nearly 30 cents in the last week on short-covering

Crop progress reports in line with expectations
Wheat futures rallied nearly 30 cents in the last week on short-covering
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)
 

Fundamentals: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down two cents, marking new contract lows for the second consecutive session. Export inspections came in at 590,013 metric tons, towards the top end of estimates. The USDA announced a sale of 651,670 metric tons to Mexico. Crop Progress after the close showed good/excellent ratings at 55%, a decline from last week and below expectations. Attention will now turn to Thursday’s USDA report, out at 11am CST. Estimates are for production to be at 13.672 billion bushels, down from 13.901 last month.

Technicals: The market has gotten a boost in the overnight/early morning trade thanks to a friendly crop progress report, holding these gains through the floor open will be crucial for setting the tone ahead of Thursday’s report. The early morning strength is a breath of fresh air for the bull camp, but there is still plenty of work to be done on the chart. Previous support at 363 ¾ now becomes resistance, the bulls need to achieve consecutive closes above here to encourage a wave of short covering.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 377-381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Pivot: 363 ¾

Support: 338 ¾-343**

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: November soybean futures traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday as market participants gear up for Thursday’s USDA report, out at 11 am CST. Estimates for production are coming in near 3.577 billion bushels, down from 3.680 in last month's report. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed good/excellent ratings at 55%, in line with expectations and last week’s read. Export inspections came in at 906,029 metric tons, in line with expectations.

Technicals: The market tested and our technically and psychologically significant support pocket near 850, labeled a MUST hold pocket in yesterday’s report. If the bulls can continue to defend this pocket, we could see prices work back towards the top end of the recent range, 880-885. If the bulls fail to hold support through the week, it leaves the door open for a potential run at the contract lows from May, 815 ½.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 880-885**, 891 ½-896 ¾***, 921-924***

Support: 850-852 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**, 815 ½****
 

Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures have rallied nearly 30 cents in the last week on the back of short-covering ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. Export inspections came in at 402,486 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations. Early morning money flow is positive in the grain complex, if this continues through the floor open it will continue to be a tailwind.

Technicals: The market has rallied right back to our first resistance pocket, 480-483 ½. IF the bulls can chew through here it will mark higher highs, neutralizing our bias. If a breakout occurs, we could see an extension of the rally take prices towards the technically and psychologically significant $5.00 marker. A failure to market higher highs will keep the bears in control.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 480-483 ½**, 493-500****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 469 ½-470**, 442-446**, 427 ¼****

 

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