Quiet Grain Trade In Front Of Upcoming USDA Report

Traders Focus On Upcoming USDA Report
Concerns regarding Corn and Soybean production remain
Soybeans managed to defend the previous day's lows
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 6 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly EIA ethanol report showed production at 1.040 million barrels per day, up from 1.031, still below last years levels. Export sales this morning came in at 42,500 metric tons, well below the low end of estimates. The USDA report is fast approaching, Monday at 11am CST, below are the estimates.

Planted Acres: Range 83.494-89.8, Average 87.998

Harvested Acres: Range 76.114-81.9, Average 80.05

Yield: Range 161.0-167.2, Average 164.9

Production: Range 12.723-13.55, Average 13.193

 

Technicals: The market managed to defend the previous day's lows and technical support again, we are now trading at the highest levels of the month. Previous support now becomes resistance, we see that as 418 ¼-420 ¾. This pocket represents the 50% retracement, the breakdown point from last week, and other previously important price points. Consecutive closes above here could warrant another leg higher. A failure and we could see prices back below $4.00 soon.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 418 ¼-420 ¾***, 431 ¼-432 ¾**, 447-450***

Support: 405 ½-409 ¼***, 395-397 ¼**, 376 ½-380****

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 7 ½ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 500 contracts.

Fundamentals: The dust has seemingly settled following Monday’s volatile session, market participants are now focusing on Monday’s USDA report, estimates are below. Export sales this morning came in at 101,600 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Planted Acres: Range 78.0-83.5, Average 81.006

Harvested Acres: Range 77.3-82.8, Average 79.89

Yield: Range 46.0-49.0, Average 47.6

Production: Range 3.633-3.974, Average 3.800

 

Technicals: Not much has changed since mid-day Monday, the market is consolidating near support as we await Monday’s USDA report. In yesterday’s report we mentioned that we were at a good spot for bears to reduce shorts and bulls to consider buying, from the risk/reward perspective. First resistance today comes in from 875-880, but the more significant pocket is closer to 900.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 875-880***, 889 ½-891 ¾***, 900-904 ¼***

Support: 854 ½-860 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**

Wheat Futures (September)

Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 5 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 12 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 1,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: Wheat futures were able to stage a bit of a rally into the afternoon session, this on the back of little news and technical buying. Export sales this morning came in at 487,700 metric tons, towards the top end of expectations.

Technicals: The inability to break support led to an afternoon buying spree, spilling over into overnight/early morning strength today. First resistance doesn’t come in until 507 ¼-509 ½. This would be a pocket to consider selling against, whether that be long liquidation or new short positions. Until we see consecutive closes above this pocket, the bears remain in control.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 507 ¼-509 ½****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 471 ¾-473 ¾***, 444½-446**, 427 ¼****

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