Corn awaits new news; A look at soybeans and wheat

Corn (December)

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 3 ¾ cents. 

Fundamentals: The market is clearly waiting on new news to give it new direction, Friday's USDA report will likely be enough of a catalyst to spark the interest of traders and other market participants. Early yield estimates are at 176.3 bushels per acre, this would be up 2.3bpa from July’s report. The average estimate for corn production comes in at 14.416 billion bushels, up from 14.230 in July. Carryout for 2017/2018 is expected to come in near 2.014 billion bushels. Carryout for 2018/2019 is expected to come in near 1.638 billion bushels. Wednesday's weekly ethanol report showed that production increased to 1.1 million barrels per day, up from 1.064 in the previous week. Export sales this morning came in at 554,500 metric tons for 2017/2018 and 657,700 metric tons for 2018/2019, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market has hardly budged all week, keeping technicals little changed for today’s report. Key technical support comes in from 379-¾ to 382-¼. This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 50-day moving average, and previously important price points. A break and close below here will likely encourage some long liquidation from recent buyers. If the bulls can defend this level, they remain in control. On the resistance side, 389 ¾ is the first barrier, but there are several barriers from... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels (see link below).


Soybeans (November)

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 6 cents, trading in a range of 15 ½ cents. 

Fundamentals:  The market continues to trade in a range as market participants await tomorrows USDA report.  Early yield estimates are at 49.8 bushels per acre, up from 48.5 in July.  Early production estimates are at 4.425 billion bushels, up from 4.310 in July.  Carryout estimates for 2017/2018 are 463.4 million bushels.  Average estimate for 2018/2019 carryout is 647.5 million bushels.  Export sales this morning came in at 421,800 metric tons for 2017/2018 and 523,500 metric tons for 2018/2019, towards the top end of expectations.

Technicals:  Technical resistance was tested and defended yesterday, we had outline that as 914 ¼-915 ¾.  If the bulls can achieve a breakout and consecutive closes above this pocket, we could see that spark another round of short covering from the funds.  On the support side of things....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (September)

Yesterday’s Close:  September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 2 ½ cents, trading in a range of 13 ½ cents. 

Fundamentals:  Wheat seems to be running out of gas as the bulls look for a new bullish catalyst outside of dryness through Europe, Australia, and the Black Sea.  We continue to believe that these supply concerns will be short-lived, as they typically are for the wheat market, but that’s not to say this time can’t be different so be sure to manage your risk appropriately.  The average estimate for 2017/2018 carryout is 1.1 billion bushels, the average estimate for 2018/2019 carryout is .967 billion bushels.  All wheat production is estimated to be near 1.857 billion bushels.  Export sales this morning came in at 317,100 metric tons, within the range of expectations. 

Technicals:  The market continues to tread water near our pivot point of 570 ¾.  A conviction close above opens the door for a big leg higher and a conviction close below opens the door for long liquidation.  On the support side of things... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.