E-mini S&P 500 (September)
Last week’s close (Friday, July 6): Settled at 2763, up 24.50 on Friday and up 41.50 on the week.
Fundamentals: Equity markets around the globe are firmly in the green as trade tensions have taken a back seat to the Federal Reserve and investors eye the kickoff of earnings season. Wage growth on Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report missed expectations and reinvigorated the bullishness that an accommodative Federal Reserve brings to the table. Yes, the Fed projects two more hikes this year but there is certainly traction behind questioning the fourth or the true effects of such while Treasury yields remain suppressed due to the overarching trade rhetoric. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted strong sessions Friday gaining 0.9% and 1.5% and have extended gains ahead of the bell. Asia is the biggest beneficiary to this momentum with the Nikkei +1.2% and the Hang Seng +1.3%. The Chinese yuan has strengthened 0.4% against the U.S. dollar while the euro is at the highest level since the June 14th ECB meeting; Dollar weakness is adding a broad bid to equity markets. We encourage you to read Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week as we discuss trade tensions, the ECB, inflation and more for the week ahead.
Technicals: Though we held a slight Bearish Bias, we were clear on Friday morning that a move and close above major three-star resistance at 2745.50-2748.25 was bullish and opens the door for another 1%; this is exactly what has happened. Price action faces resistance at 2770-2773 and has stuck to this level while trading to an overnight high of 2775.25. Friday’s close was 2763 and this now brings a gap support level in which traders should look to buy the first test. Sentiment has quickly turned bullish but technically, you must not ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 73.80, up 0.86 on Friday and down 0.35 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude battled back for a friendly Friday session as geopolitical tensions from Iran to Syria and more linger. While WTI posted a strong session off support on Friday, Brent finished in the red. Among catalysts were the Cushing draw Thursday and a supportive jobs report which also brought a weaker Dollar. On Friday, Baker Hughes reported five oil rigs were added and this is likely weighing on sentiment coming out of the weekend. Traders should keep an eye on overall global markets to gauge risk appetite and if Asia and the U.S stay green, Crude is likely to continue to hold ground well before inventory projections come into the picture. Wednesday will be a critical session with OPEC’s Monthly Report and the official EIA data.
Technicals: Here, on Friday morning, we did Neutralize our Bias as we said there were too many question marks. We have been Bullish for a long time and it was an opportunity to watch an inning or two. However, once price action began lifting though resistance that developed at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last week’s close: Settled at 1255.8, down 3.0 on Friday and up 1.3 on the week.
Fundamentals: Gold is off to a strong start this week trading up about $10 per oz., although it did not respond to soft wage growth on Friday’s jobs report. The Chinese yuan is down 0.4% to the U.S. dollar today and this is a constant reminder that the yuan is driving gold demand right here, right now. The dollar is also losing ground to the Euro which is at the highest level since the June 14 ECB Meeting when gold was above $1,300 per oz. While there is no major economic data from the United States today, Eurozone Sentiment data beat expectations and ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at 8:00 am Central and again at 10:00 am CT. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks at 8:15 am CT. We encourage you to read our Tradable Events this Week to see what catalysts lie ahead for the metal.
Technicals: Gold has moved out above first key resistance at 1262.5 and it will be crucial to hold this level on a closing basis to ensure this momentum stays intact. Second key resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.