Session close (Wednesday, April 18): Settled at 1.2431
Fundamentals: The euro started off on its backfoot this morning after a soft CPI read, YoY headline missed by one-tenth and the rest was inline. Ultimately though, this was an inside session but another in which the euro battled back when it did not have fresh news to support such. In fact, the euro has remained buoyant despite outright poor data this week. This speaks volumes for the longer-term trend; if it cannot go down on bad news, imagine what it does on bullish news. The U.S dollar ticked up a bit after the Fed’s Beige Book was released.
This reported that labor markets were tight and there is concern over the recently imposed tariffs. Additionally, outgoing NY Fed President Dudley spoke and said, “gradual rate hikes are necessary in order to get policy back to neutral,” his neutral benchmark is 3%. Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 3:15 pm CT today. The EU Finance Ministers Meet tomorrow morning. From the U.S. tomorrow we look to Fed Governor Brainard speaking at 7:00 am CT, weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed at 7:30 am CT. Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 8:30 am CT and Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks at 5:45 pm CT.
Technicals: Price action recovered very well on the session after trading near first key support. The settlement again hugged the pivot. The tape maintains a ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Session close: Settled at .9358
Fundamentals: The yen peeled back today for a number of reasons which signal it is not quite out of its downtrend. Treasury yields moved higher today signaling a risk-on environment and this typically weighs on the Yen. Equity markets continued their march north and the domestic Nikkei gained 1.4%, adding direct pressure. Additionally, the geopolitical worries have subsided while Prime Minister Abe is meeting with President Trump and a friendly meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is close to being scheduled. Traders look to a crucial CPI read from Japan tomorrow evening.
Technicals: Price action failed to move out above major three-star resistance.
Session close: Settled at .7785
Fundamentals: The Aussie finished Monday’s session on soft footing and traded lower early last night. However, strength across the board in the commodities, especially the metals sector, helped solidify a bottom early this morning and the currency was able to post a strong session. Additionally, traders are not quick to press either side of this trade as we await Employment data and Business Confidence tonight at 8:30 pm CT.
Technicals: Price action has continued to hug the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages.
Session close: Settled at .79245
Fundamentals: The Bank of Canada kept interest rates steady as expected this morning. However, the Canadian sold off hard despite across the board commodity strength as they pointed to steady to higher inflation as transitory due to gas prices and higher minimum wages. They noted that the economy performed weaker than expected in the first quarter and this is something we have discussed here many times; the data outside of employment has been flat out awful. They did point to uncertainty in trade and a housing market as a reason for the economic weakness.
Technicals: Price action retreated sharply today but it has held our line in the sand for being bullish.