Sideways market pricing in the symbols I monitor may continue in this forthcoming trading week, although three markets have a narrow range that can breakout widely. The S&P 500 futures, crude oil, and Soybeans are those narrow range breakers. The euro, Pound and Aussie have trending pivots that can cause wide ranges. Thus, my ranges may be off this week with contradictory market math present. Beans are pushing up into the weekly 50-simple moving average (SMA) with both hands, as of Thursday.
Crude oil, whose weekly high was in my projected high zone, presented a beautiful bull engulf candle for a Valentine’s Day gift, and 63.15 is its daily 20-SMA. The S&P 500 and the yen bumped their heads on moving average and pivots, too. My Tuesday trade idea for a long call spread on the S&P futures with a weekly expiration would’ve won. A 40-point rally ensued, with 2700 hit Likewise, the Aussie tossed a red doji when it stood up hitting the daily 20-period simple moving average. Overhead resistances do not alone make me bearish, however.
Addressing last week’s predictions, I correctly predicted a wide-range breakout in soybeans, complete with a trade idea for a strangle that would’ve won. My worst range prediction was Bitcoin’s lows. See last week’s report for my exact soybeans report.
“If I had to dream up an exciting surprise event for this week, it is, potentially, Soybeans with their quiet, little, green doji on Thursday’s daily chart sitting in monthly pivots’ fair valuation, hovering over those pivots almost deceptively distracting traders from its narrow range. Soybeans has tight, trending pivots and a narrow range within that spinning top (describes the toy that the candlestick resembles- not a market top) doji. As a setup, it allured me so that I priced a weekly-options strangle at the 990-970 strikes for about $400.00, but it could go badly several ways. So, my opinion may be to wait to see in which direction it breaks before planning a trade. The weekly chart is bearish, but the monthly beans chart is bullish.”
For market character, most symbols I track present sideways pivots for the week. The only trade ideas I can extract, and never force a trade, are lightly short-sideways positions in the euro, yen, and Aussie dollars as well as gold and the S&P 500 (to 2720) via short call spreads with weekly expirations.
Technical curiosities on charts this week include the yen and Gold hitting Monthly Camarilla Pivots and Bitcoin breaking over the daily 20-SMA and stopping at a weekly Camarilla level.
This Past Week’s Predictions Into Feb. 16
Highs 2728 2698
Lows 2520-2490 Actual 2755-2620
Lows 9150-9115 Actual 9490-9201
Lows 12198-12130 Actual 12579-12262
Lows 1314-1298 Actual 1364-1316
Lows 5866-5769 Actual 6187-5820
Lows 1376-1365 Actual 1416-1381
Lows 7760-7685 Actual 7987-7772
Lows 969-959 Actual 1028-989
Highs 10771- 9549
Lows 6968-5490 Actual 10320-8010
This Coming Week’s Projected Ranges/Trade Zones for the week of Feb. 19
Highs 2877 2797
Highs 11546- 10695