Next week’s major market ranges: forex, gold, bitcoin and grains

Six of the nine markets I follow are setting up for trending price moves for this coming week. Gold, the euro and the Japanese yen are the most favorable for wide-ranging moves. The British pound, Aussie dollar and soybeans are also flashing trending pivots on the upcoming week.

Because all of these also have some degree of narrow-range action, I will highlight some possible trade ideas as well. The yen threw an extreme candle at us on the daily chart two days ago and is the weakest trade idea with a lower target of 8967, should more confirmation at these higher, stops-running prices emerge. The euro gives us an inverted hammer on both the daily and weekly charts in overbought conditions and outside narrowed Bollinger Bands, coupled with momentum studies pointing downward on volume support. This could be a short call spread in monthly expiration and a straight put in weekly options. The pound, aussie and soybeans also offer bearish trade signals, but, like gold, have higher pivots on the week, a likelihood of a bounce back up, and less technical reasons to short them. Crude oil and the S&P 500 futures are bearish with short-term bull signals, meaning one wouldn’t commit too strongly in the upside for this week but could play ball, if so inclined.

The sideways pivots in crude and the S&P actually appeal to me as my favorite Iron Condor option spread trade setup, should a deep, out-of-value downspike occur. My crude trade last week was profitable as a short call spread for a brief window for an exit on Thursday.

Being my third week to try to predict bitcoin futures (XBT), I can state my bias that the swing low may be in, yet due for a retest. I upshifted my ranges again for a third week in a row with two weeks being wrong. Nothing is different as far as positive divergences and a market that responded to a four-hour chart hammer low for a winning trade. Again, this is a very new concept in society to have this type of currency and to grade/value/judge it is elusive with an ethereal vibe or feel.

 

Predicted ranges for the week ending Jan. 25

S&P 500
Highs 2836-24/Lows 2768-75

Yen
Highs 9120-9094/Lows 8980-8944

Euro
Highs 12448-12372/Lows 12144-12077

Gold
Highs 1354-1343/Lows 1322-1311

Crude
Highs 6508-6482/Lows 6219-6179;

Pound
Highs 1410-1398/Lows 1375-1364

Aussie Dollar
Highs 8100-8046/Lows 7918-7886

Soybeans
Highs 998-988/Lows 962-958

Bitcoin
Highs 14726- 13575/Lows 10205-8477  

 

This Past Week’s Projected Ranges & actual levels

S&P
Highs 2809 -2793
Lows 2754-42   Actual: 2812.50-2769.25

6J Yen
Highs 9110-9060
Lows 8926-8966  ACTUAL: 9103-8997

Eurodollar
Highs 12375-12260
Lows 12131-12088 ACTUAL: 12368-12209

Gold
Highs 1352-1340
Lows 1318-05  ACTUAL: 1245-1224.30

Crude Oil
Highs 6516-6482/Lows 6244-6190/Actual: 64.89-62.78

Pound
Highs 1386-1383/Lows 1360-51/Actual: 1397-1375

Aussie Dollar
Highs 7981-7953/Lows 7829-7789/Actual:  8037-7905

Corn
Highs 352.50-350.50/Lows 346-3.50/Actual: 354-346

Soybeans
Highs 972-969/Lows 949-941/Actual 972.75-962.25

Bitcoin (XBT)
Highs 16160-16129/Lows/Actual: 14300-9250