Daily forex rundown: Euro, yen, Aussie & CAD

Euro (March)

Session close lost 33 ticks on the session to finish at 1.19795

Fundamentals: The euro continued lower today on technicals. Economic data was again more favorable for the euro than the dollar with a strong German Trade Balance and Industrial Production while JOLTs Job Openings in the US missed. Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari stayed the course, speaking in a dissenting manner. What we are seeing is a cleansing of a record long position.

Technicals: In the previous CoT report for the week ending 12/26 there was a Leveraged net-long position of fewer than 1,000 contracts. For the week ending 1/2, the net long position was more than 34,000 contracts.

Yen (March)

Session close gained 34.5 ticks and settled at .89085

Fundamentals: The Yen has finally seen some life and for the fundamental reasons we have been looking for. The Bank of Japan announced last night that they will trim bond purchases in issues longer than 10 years. This could be the beginning of tightening for them as speculation is mounting the BoJ will begin to slow their open-ended ultra-loose monetary policy. We have repeatedly said that though BoJ Governor has denied the chance of withdrawing stimulus anytime soon, there is a handful of council members that are likely pushing against this. Tonight, there is a JGB auction at 9:45 pm CT which will now be very interesting to see and especially after the day the U.S 10 year had. Chinese CPI and PPI is due at 7:30 pm CT; misses here could help attract safe-haven support for the Yen.

Technicals: Today’s move is exactly what the bull camp needed to see the key support, we have now unneutralized our Bias ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Aussie (March)

Session close settled down 18 ticks at .7822

Fundamentals: The Aussie continues to take the breather with its second session in a row. Prior to this, it only had two negative sessions out of its last 18. A stronger U.S dollar on a consolidation from oversold territory and a retreat in the metals camp have been the key catalysts. We also believe traders who have been long are taking profits ahead of Aussie NAB Business Confidence at 6:30 pm CT, Chinse CPI and PPI tonight at 7:30 pm CT and tomorrow’s key Aussie Retail Sales read. There are two camps on this Retail Sales read tomorrow, those that believe data has begun to turn the corner and those that believe it went through a period of being such poor it simply needed to get better. Tomorrow will be critical.

Technicals: Price action traded to a low of .7805 early in today’s session before consolidating higher ahead of minor support at .7799.

Canadian (March)

Session close settled down 24.5 ticks at .8032

Fundamentals: There has been no major data out of Canada this week and traders are taking profit from Friday’s spike on jobs that was followed by a very underwhelming Ivey PMI. Crude Oil broke out above the May 2015 highs today and is now trading around $63, the highest since December 2014. Keep an eye on this trade as it is likely keeping the Canadian from further weakness in the immediate term. We do like the Canadian in the longer term and after it relieves a little from its recent run.

Technicals: Major three-star resistance at .8085 continues to hold strong with a session high of .8071 that quickly backed away from the level.