Bullish case for gold in 2017

January 12, 2017 09:38 AM

Technically, gold still appears oversold, down almost one standard deviation now. As you can see, it’s moving back to its mean for the 60-day period, but there’s still time to capture potential growth.

Commodities Show Resilience Despite Strengthening U.S. Dollar

Commodities were the second-best asset class last year because manufacturers and trade are showing improvement.

Global manufacturing expanded for the fourth straight month in December, reaching 52.7, its highest reading since February 2014. The individual U.S., Germany, Japan, and eurozone PMIs all hit their highest posts in at least a year, building on a strengthening uptrend that’s been in place since September. International trade volume expansion hit a 27-month high, according to Markit. And despite the “negative” consequence of Brexit, the U.K. Manufacturing PMI posted an amazing 56.1, up from 53.4 in November.

As for commodities, I’m pleased they’ve shown resilience in the face of a strengthening U.S. dollar. CLSA analyst Christopher Wood touched on this very topic in his recent edition of “GREED and fear,” writing that “the renewed dollar strength post Trump’s victory has not been accompanied by renewed commodity weakness. Rather the reverse has happened, with copper rallying, for example, on presumed hopes of increased demand triggered by Trump’s infrastructure policies.”

China’s commodities trading volume has also been impressive, maintaining its rank as the world’s heaviest for the seventh consecutive year.

Of course, price appreciation for commodities and natural resources is inflationary for consumer goods. Because of possibly rising gasoline prices, U.S. drivers are expected to spend about $52 billion more at the gas pump this year compared to 2016, according to GasBuddy’s 2017 Fuel Price Outlook. Three-dollar gas will likely become a reality again in several large cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle.

Whatever you end up paying, make it a point this year to stay optimistic. Not only does being optimistic help you stay healthy, both mentally and physically, but it also allows you to see the opportunities that others might not.

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