Crude prices higher after the EIA oil inventory report

September 21, 2016 11:02 AM

The energy complex are trading higher after the EIA released its latest weekly oil inventory report. The data showed Total Crude & Product stocks decreased by 6.034/mmbls to 1390.917/mmbls for week ending Sept. 16. Looking at the year-on-year for Total Crude & Product stocks we see we are now 93.2/mmbls above last year’s level for this time of the year and above the five-year average by 242.9/mmbls.

Crude oil stocks decreased by 6.200/mmbls to 504.598/mmbls versus our projections looking for a build of around 5.2/mmbls for the week under review. Looking at the year-on-year we are running at 50.6/mmbls above last year’s level for this time of the year and 129.7/mmbls above the five-year average. When we look at the PADD breakdown we saw a mixed picture with PADD I showing a build of 290,000/bbls to 17.508/mmbls while PADD II showed a draw of 1.729/mmbls to 147.005/mmbls. Cushing, Okla., showed a build of 526,000/bbls to 62.714/mmbls while PADD III showed a draw of 3.732/mmbls to 265.358/mmbls. PADD IV showed a draw of 441,000/bbls to 25.257/mmbls and PADD V showed a draw of 588,000/bbls to 49.470/mmbls.       

On the gasoline side of the data the EIA reported that gasoline stocks decreased by a 3.204/mmbls to 225.156/mmbls versus our projections looking for a build of around 600,000/bbls. Looking at the year-on-year for gasoline stocks we see that we are above last year’s level for this time of the year by 6.4/mmbls and we are above the five year average by 14.1/mmbls. On the distillate side of the report distillate stocks showed a build of 2.238/mmbls to 164.992/mmbls which was more than our projections looking for a build of around 1.1/mmbls.

Looking at the year-on-year for distillate stocks we see that we are above last year’s level by 13.1/mmbls and we are 25.7/mmbls above the five year average. When we look at the breakdown for distillate stocks we see that diesel stocks increased by 2.119/mmbls and heating oil stocks increased by 119,000/bbls. On the refining side of the report refinery runs decreased 0.9% to 92% for the week under review. Looking at the year-on-year for refinery runs we see that we are above last year’s level by 1.1% and we are above the five year average by 1.9%. 

On the import side of the report we saw that imports were mixed for week ending Sept 16. Imports of crude oil increased 247,000/bbls to 8.309/mmbls. Imports of gasoline stocks decreased by 81,000/bbls to 569,000/bbls. Imports of distillate stocks decreased by 64,000/bbls to 76,000/bbls for the week under review. Imports of jet fuel decreased by 30,000/bbls to 148,000/bbls. Total Imports increased by 81,000/bbls to 10.343/mmbls. 

On the demand side for the data we saw a mostly higher picture for implied demand for week ending Sept. 16. Implied gasoline demand increased by 244,000/bbls to 9.650/mmbls per day bring the year-on-year to 435,000/bbls above last year’s level. Gasoline demand is above the five-year average by 756,000/bbls. Implied distillate demand increased by 155,000/bbls to 3.431/mmbls per day bring the year on year to 891,000/bbls below last year’s level. Implied distillate demand is below the five-year average by 415,000/bbls. Implied jet fuel demand increased by 11,000/bbls to 1.690/mmbls per day for the week under review.

Looking at the year on year for implied jet fuel demand we see that we are 315,000/bbls above last year’s level for this time of the year and we are above the five year average by 332,000/bbls. Overall total implied demand decreased 790,000/bbls to 19.431/mmbls per day. Looking at the year-on-year for total implied demand we see that we are below last year’s level for this time of the year by 710,000/bbls while we are above the five year average by 247,000/bbls. We viewed this weekly mixed EIA oil inventory report as bullish. 

 

Total Crude & Product Inventory Chart

 

Refinery Utilization Chart

 

Total Gasoline Inventory Chart

 

Total EIA Distillate Inventory Chart


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Energy Market Analysis is published daily by the Energy Management Institute 1324 Lexington Avenue, # 322, New York, NY 10128. Copyright 2008. Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited. Subscriptions: $129 for annual orders. Editor in Chief: Dominick Chirichella, Publisher: Stephen Gloyd, Editor Sal Umek.