S&P 500 needs to prove hold at key level -- or else

March 14, 2013 06:12 PM
Open could be key

If the 1553.50 was such a big deal… then where were the balloons? Where were the fireworks? And why was 1553.50 still being tested in the afternoon? The rally gets one day to prove its breakout. Possibly, not even that long, depending on the open.

Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)

The long-awaited and much teased test of 1553.50 was sort of a letdown. First, it was already tested overnight before Thursday’s open. Then, the cash session ranged around it as each timing window overlapped it.

Each leg’s higher highs and higher lows does suggest there will be follow-through. Actually closing higher Friday might be another issue. It would confirm Thursday’s breakout, with potential to 1575.00, but little if any pullback here can be tolerated.

Gapping down would not, itself, be bearish. Gapping down and then extending down could be very bearish. The nearest attraction is “lower prior highs” at 1549.25-1550.00. Gapping down to it and then firming would be likely to recover entirely. Gapping down to it and then ticking down for several minutes would be likely to extend down much further through the day..

What’s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)

This being expiration, trending throughout the opening 15 minutes — throughout — tends to extend much further in that direction through the day. This being expiration, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist not only through the noon hour but well into the afternoon… Thanks again to all for your patience in my mid-day absence Thursday.

Look for at least one update overnight or ahead of the Morning Market Tour… My thoughts on the day’s econ calendar are linked here.

About the Author

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.